S1P01 - The Midterms

This is the first effort of my new blog not counting the introduction post, Season 1, Post 1 (S1P01). It's a brief recap of the 2018 midterm elections. Although the results are still not totally final, they are almost complete and the remaining few races won't materially change the overall results. In general, except for the US Senate, the Democrats had a very good election day. They retook the House by a big majority, gained a significant number of governorships, and made real gains in state legislatures. Locally, Texas Republicans still won most of the statewide offices but by much narrower margins than the last few years. The Texas legislature is more balanced. While Texas is still a RED state, it is becoming much more PURPLE. The next two years should be very interesting. 

In the words of Donald Trump, "a total victory" for the GOP. 

The following are notes I took over the past month since the November 6th election day: 

2018 Midterm Elections

Voting results from the NYT

National Elections

Nationwide, about 49.7% of eligible voters cast a ballot. About 116 million.

• Georgia Governor - Brian Kemp (R) 50.3%, Stacey Abrams (D) 48.8%
• Florida Governor - Rick DeSantis (R) 49.6%, Andrew Gillum (D) 49.2%
• Florida US Senate - Rick Scott (R) 50.1%, Bill Nelson (D) 49.9%
• Kansas Governor - Laura Kelly (D) 47.8%, Kris Kobach (R) 43.3%
• Wisconsin Governor - Tony Evers (D) 49.6%, Scott Walker (R) 48.4%
• Arizona US Senate - Kyrsten Sinema (D)  49.7%, Martha McSally (R) 48%
• Final Senate makeup - GOP 53, Dems 47
• Total Votes - Dem 51.6 million, GOP 34.4 million
• GOP gains 2 seats
• Almost Final House makeup - Dem 234, GOP 198
• Total Votes - Dem 56.1 million, GOP 49.7 million
• Dems gain 39 seats
• Final Governor makeup - GOP 27, Dem 23
• Total Votes - Dem 45.0 million, GOP 42.7 million
• Dems gain 7 seats

Texas State & Local

• US Senate - Ted Cruz (R) 50.9%, Beto O’Rourke (D) 48.3%
• Governor - Greg Abbott (R) 55.8%, Lupe Valdez (D) 42.5%
• Lt. Governor - Mike Patrick (R) 51.3%, Mike Collier (D) 46.5%
• AG - Ken Paxton (R) 50.6%, Justin Nelson (D) 47%
• US House 24 - Kenny Marchant (R) 51%, Jan McDowell (D) 48%
• Marchant lost in Dallas Co. & Denton Co. precincts. Won in Tarrant Co.
• US House 32 - Colin Allred (D) 52%, Pete Sessions (R) 46% (Flip)
• Texas Senate 09 - Kelly Hancock (R) 54%, Gwenn Burud (D) 46%
• Texas Senate 10 - Beverly Powell (D) 52%, Konni Burton (R) 48% (Flip)
• Texas House 92 - Jonathan Stickland (R) 50%, Steve Riddell (D) 47%
• Tarrant JPS Hospital bond - passed
• Texas Senate makeup - total 31 seats. Was 21 GOP, 10 Dem
• New makeup - GOP 19, Dems 12
• 2018 Election - 15 seats up for election. GOP 10 (67%), Dem 5 
• Dems flipped 2 seats
• Texas House makeup - GOP 83 (55%), Dem 67 (45%)
• Dems gained 12 seats. Was GOP 95, Dem 55

Election notes and observations:

• There will be over 100 (117) women in the US House. First Muslim woman, first Native American women
• There will be 104 new members in Congress
• What’s next for Beto? A 2020 senate run, presidential run, VP candidate…
• Tarrant County turning purple or blue? 2012 - Cruz +16%, 2016 - Trump +6%, 2018 - Beto +1%
• Florida passed amendment reinstating felons voting rights
• Michigan, Colorado, Missouri, and maybe Utah voted for independent commissions to draw future voting districts
• Florida voting still a mess. Very close races and vote tally problems
• Some interesting midterm numbers and charts from FiveThirtyEight

Enough about 2018. It's now time to start the 2020 campaigns. 

wjh